12-16″ Snow Likely

Snow is likely this afternoon through Saturday until about noon.. the snow really begins to pick up in the metro around 2 p.m… Frontogenetical forcing will cause snow to develop up and down the missouri river tonight.. I am expecting 12-16″ in the metro.. This is a very good bet.. Near blizzard conditions will also occur tonight as sustained winds are between 30-35 mph.. We may be just under blizzard criteria.

10-15″ Snow Thursday/Friday/Saturday

The metro is looking at 10-15″ of snow from Thursday through Saturday… There could be some 16″ amounts between Valley and Columbus, NE.  These amounts do not count what will fall today to our west.

Another Update

As Willy mentioned, things continue to trend westward.  That being said, here is a look at the latest timeline:

3 p.m. Tuesday – 9 a.m. Wednesday –> Freezing Drizzle

9 a.m. – 12 p.m. Wednesday –> Drizzle

12 p.m. Wednesday -  6 a.m. Thursday –> Rain

6 a.m. Thursday – 9 a.m. Thursday –> Cloudy

9 a.m. Thursday – 4 p.m. Thursday –> Rain

4 p.m. Thursday – Friday –> Snow

Now, there are some possible complications as we go towards Thursday evening and Friday night… The latest 00Z ECMWF is not favorable for area in getting very much snow once it switches over… However, I have some problems with this model run, as I believe it is too weak with the southern vort max…

We will see what tomorrow’s runs hold.

Ross

Winter Storm Update

This is just a quick update on the winter storm that will impact the area this week. It still looks like two waves of more organized precipitation will affect the area — one on Wednesday as a lead disturbance moves through, and another on Thursday into Friday as the main storm strengthens and lifts into the area. The overall trend I’m seeing with the new December 22nd 00z computer model data is for a track farther to the west, which will result in warmer temperatures, at least initially. This could mean more rain than freezing rain on Wednesday for Omaha, as well as a later switch to all snow on Thursday. In addition, if this tracks much farther west, the surface low could move almost directly over Omaha, placing the heaviest snow off to our west. Regardless of the track, the models still deepen this storm pretty significantly, so the snow that does fall will be blown around on very strong winds.

Obviously, there are still a lot of details to be worked out. Hopefully the next 12 to 24 hours of model data will help answer some questions.

Willy

Major Storm Possible Christmas Eve/Day

Traveling is going to be a nightmare Christmas Eve/Day across the middle part of the country.  It still appears that a very strong storm system will lift into our area by Christmas Eve.

Based off the October pattern, in which this upcoming storm tended to phase over our area, I would not see any reason for the same thing not to occur in December.  In my opinion, the GFS is too far south.  Regardless, the ECMWF and GFS both showing accumulating snow for us Christmas eve. However, the latest 00Z ECMWF cuts further north, which is very interesting.  In fact, the latest run is forecasting a 980 mb sfc low over extreme northwestern Missouri.  Holy cow, that is an intense blizzard!

What is interesting about the ECMWF solution is that it continues to trend westward. We will see if this trend continues.  IF it does, areas just to our west may get into the brunt of the snow.  These strong storms almost always will make a more abrupt turn to the left after bottoming out.  This would put the surface low near Omaha if the 00Z ECMWF run was exactly right (which is doubtful).. That would put a dent in snowfall amounts here.. We will see what models do over the next few days.. Still a lot of time.  However, it does appear certain that a big storm will affect somewhere in the midwest by Christmas Eve..Keep posted!

Ross

Unsettled Weather Pattern

Slightly unsettled weather is expected over the next day or two, but no significant impacts are anticipated for eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. A weak weather disturbance will bring a light mix of flurries and freezing drizzle on Friday, with some flurries possibly lingering into Saturday. Right now, snow and ice accumulations are expected to be quite minimal.

A much more interesting situation is possible next week as a stronger storm system moves across the central plains. Like usual, the track of the storm is all over the place, but there is certainly the potential for accumulating snow in the area. The timing right now looks like Tuesday Night through Wednesday Night.

For once, a white Christmas looks like a guarantee. Even if the midweek storm does not materialize, I don’t imagine that our current snowpack is going to go anywhere anytime soon!

Willy

Blizzard Conditions Likely

I expect a blizzard warning to be issued sometime this evening through tomorrow morning.  Around 9 p.m. winds will increase dramatically, with even stronger winds overnight.  Sustained winds are forecasted to be between 25-35 mph tonight, with frequent gusts over 35 mph.  The likelihood of school being cancelled tomorrow is decent in my opinion.  Snowfall forecast below still looking good.

Ross

8-11″ snow likely

We are looking at 8-11″ in the metro..Light snow will begin around midnight, continuing thoughout the day tomorrow.. The heaviest snow will occur from noon to 6 p.m. tomorrow, ending around around midnight..Here’s the map:

Heaviest 11-13″ should occur just to our north..This is the way it is looking now..Blizzard warning may be issued Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning as winds increase..Keep posted!

Ross

Tuesday’s Storm Likely to Lift Further North

Hi everyone,

Interesting storm today, and a more interesting one come Tuesday…

I firmly believe that the current QPF forecast from the GFS model is too far south with the heaviest snowfall Tuesday… Here is a look at what the GFS is showing now:

Although everyone is likely to see a good dose of snow, I believe the heaviest snow fall will lift significantly further north than models show now… How far north is the question, and I’ll have more on that tomorrow..

The reasoning for this is frontogenesis… Make sure to look at GARP for mid-level frontogenesis (800-700 mb) to see where the models should be placing the core of the heavy band.. Especially with stronger systems, the models love to place the heaviest snow more in line with low-level frontogenesis, but this simply is not the case…Snowfall placement is dependent on frontogenetical forcing in the mid-levels, NOT the lower levels..This will change the placement of the heaviest snowfall in this case too..

Again more tomorrow, but we will definitely have a plowable snow (> 4″) out of this sytem.

Ross

Oops..

Well, looks like the heaviest snow will be to our south this evening…rather close to that southern “heavy band” that I had posted a couple of entries below..This band has been stealing moisture from the northern band and is in response to stronger frontogenetical lifting (something that I probably should have considered before!)..I expect 1-2″ in the metro..with 2-5″ in that heavy band to our south..Tuesday and Wednesday still looking interesting.

Ross